Neurality — No-Show & ROI Analysis

SGA East vs West cancellation gap + program ROI  ·  cancel rate matured through Apr 2026 · visits & AI bookings current through 2026-06
No-Show: East vs West
ROI
Neurality Bookings
Methodology
East same-day cancel
3.09%
vs West 0.51% — 6.1× higher
East all-cancel rate
6.9%
vs West 4.4% (1.58×)
Neurality ROI (monthly)
—
net of cost
Break-even incrementality
—
% of AI bookings that must be net-new

Cancellation rate — East (SGA) vs West (Gen4) PBI / PMS

Monthly. SGA has no literal "no-show" status — same-day cancellation is the economic equivalent. Toggle the visits/day overlay (Karen's parked-column ask) in the legend.

Same-day cancellation — the real gap

Same-day cancels carry the highest revenue impact (the slot can't be refilled). This is where West's confirmation / parked-column process shows.

Program ROI — directly-attributed AI bookings

Run-rate from the latest full month (2026-05: 345 NP, 212 EP booked by the AI). Each line = volume × value, netted for cancellations and an incrementality factor (what share is truly net-new vs would-have-booked-anyway). Toggle lines via the switches or ⚙ to match what survives scrutiny.
Monthly net-new production (incremental)
—
Program cost
—
—
return per $1 spent / month
Break-even at only — incrementality.
Below that, the program still pays for itself. Current setting assumes —.
Payback: — · Annualized net: —

Sensitivity — ROI vs incrementality

How the monthly ROI multiple moves as the incrementality assumption changes. The dashed line is break-even (ROI = 1×).

AI booking ramp Neurality scraper

Directly-attributed bookings (source = agent / web_booking). 1303 total across 26 practices · 25% captured after-hours · 27% of AI bookings later cancel.

Methodology & caveats

  • East/West split = Practices[Legacy Company] ("SGA"=East, "Gen4"=West) in the live PBI bridge (dataset e3fcdf32). Cancellations computed from SAP_Cleaned_FullLoad_Output, latest snapshot only (IsLatest=1).
  • No literal "No-Show" exists in PBI or Neurality. Deduced_Status = {Completed, Scheduled, Cancelled, ReScheduled}. Same-day cancellation (Cancelled_Date = appointment date) is the no-show proxy.
  • Neurality footprint is ~96% West (25 of 27 practices). The East-vs-West comparison therefore uses PBI/PMS (full network, 96 East vs 15 West practices), not the Neurality scraper — which would only represent West.
  • ROI uses directly-observed AI bookings, not a pre/post baseline (the prior decomposition mixed fresh scraper data with a stale PBI window and is unreliable). $/visit and $/NP anchor to PBI actuals; $/NP first-year value is an editable assumption.
  • Incrementality factor is the key lever: the share of AI bookings that are truly net-new vs patients who would have booked by phone anyway. Set conservatively; break-even is very low.
  • Recent months understate cancel rate — future-dated appointments haven't had the chance to cancel yet. Read the trend, not the last point.
  • After-hours line overlaps NP/EP production (it is a slice of the same bookings, not additive). It is OFF by default to avoid double-counting; toggle on for illustration only.